Gophers Football: 4 Ways to Win the Citrus Bowl and a Prediction

All of the hard work put in by the Minnesota Gophers football team and staff has culminated into a January 1st bowl against the 10-3 Missouri Tigers. It will be Minnesota’s first New Years Day game in more than 5 decades.

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While the Gophers are just gaining momentum as a program, the Tigers are no stranger to bowl games. Since 2005, they’ve made it to one in every year but 2012, including two Cotton Bowl victories. Last year, they beat Oklahoma 41-31 in that very bowl. Bottom line, Missouri is no stranger to the big stage.

In what will likely be a phenomenal football game, here are four things I will be watching closely.

1. Slow down the Tigers’ Defensive line

There are a few reasons Missouri made it to the SEC Championship. Arguably the most of which is their devastating defensive line, which was 7th in the country with 42 sacks. Junior defensive end Shane Ray might be the best the Gophers have seen all season. His 14 sacks and 21 tackles for loss were both 3rd in the country and earned him SEC defensive player of the year honors. In 5 of their 13 games, Ray had two or more sacks. Markus Golden is another standout on the line, who had 8.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss.

If the Gophers get put in many 3rd and long situations, it could be disastrous. There are only 4 teams in the entire country with worse passing offenses. The key for the Minnesota will be getting positive yards on first and second down, while avoiding obvious passing situations.

2. The Gophers need effective quarterbacking

Nov 29, 2014; Madison, WI, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Mitch Leidner (7) during the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin won 34-24. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

This one seems obvious, but it’s especially true for Minnesota. They’ve basically played as well as Mitch Leidner all season. Whether he has a good game or a bad game, it usually reflects on the scoreboard. I’ll give two examples. On November 8th against Iowa, Mitch had the best game of his collegiate career. He finished 10-13 for 138 yards and 4 touchdowns, while rushing 11 times for 77 yards. He wasn’t asked to throw the ball all over the field, but executed the game plan to perfection. They obliterated Iowa 51-14.

Now let’s move to the other end of the spectrum, the Illinois game. The Gophers were coming off of four straight victories and were favored to win by about 10. Leidner had arguably the worst game of his career. He completed only 40% of his passes, finishing 12-30 for 240 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. They lost 28-24.

With the performances they get game after game from David Cobb, the Gophers don’t need elite quarterbacking. They simply need efficiency. If Mitch Leidner can hit on 60% or more of his passes, Minnesota’s chances of winning increase dramatically.

3. David Cobb needs to be David Cobb

Other than NFL bound Maxx Williams, David Cobb has been the Gophers bright spot, rushing for a school record 1,545 yards. He won’t break away with lightning speed or bulldoze through people, but he will break ankles. Cobb’s shiftiness and balance are second to none and they’ve helped him find the end zone 13 times this year.

I noticed one similarity between Missouri’s three losses this year — inability to stop the run. In losses to Alabama, Indiana and Georgia, the Tigers got torched on the ground for over 200 yards. They have struggled against really good running backs and have another one on their hands Thursday afternoon.

No team other than TCU (30-7 loss) has really shut David Cobb down this year. However, if it can be done, the Gophers’ offense stands almost no chance. In fact, I think Cobb needs to have a big game in Orlando. He has rushed for over 180 yards four times this season. Now would be a great time to make it five. Again, ANY pressure that can be taken off the passing game will be huge for Minnesota.

4. Contain Maty Mauk

A scrambling quarterback can be a thorn in the side for any team, not just the Gophers. However, in 3 of the 4 Gophers losses this year, the opposing QB has had success on the ground. Minnesota might have beaten Ohio State had J.T. Barrett not rushed the ball 17 times for 189 yards.

While Maty Mauk, quarterback for the Tigers, doesn’t possess the throwing prowess of Barrett, he can scramble. So far he’s got 335 yards on 97 carries. Missouri’s well-balanced offensive attack took a hit when Jimmie Hunt, their second leading receiver, was pronounced out for the Citrus Bowl. Against Alabama in the SEC championship, he caught the ball 6 times for 169 yards. It’s a break for the Gophers but it means more scrambling from Mauk.

As with any football game, getting stops on third down will be huge. The Gophers front 7 will need to be alert to avoid confidence killing 3rd down conversions from Maty Mauk on the ground.

Prediction: Like I said earlier, I think we’ve got an awesome contest to look forward to. It features two teams with a lot to prove. I always love watching the seniors in these games, because as soon as the score becomes final, they’ll be wearing their alma mater’s jersey. Anything can happen with so much pride on the line.

That said, the Missouri Tigers are the higher ranked team in the better conference. It’s why they are favored by 5.5 points. I’d have to bet on the Tigers by a final of 31-27, although I’d never put my hard earned money on this one. Go Gophers.

Next: Gophers Basketball is Sharing the Rock

Oct 25, 2014; Champaign, IL, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Jerry Kill on the sideline during the game against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Illinois won 28-24. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

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