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Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers: Preview, Keys to Victory and Prediction

By Drew Mahowald

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Nov 23, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) escapes from Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Shamar Stephen (93) and defensive end Everson Griffen (97) during the first quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Preview

Vikings offense vs. Packers defense

It’s pretty clear what Minnesota’s plan of attack is offensively. Norv Turner has stubbornly stuck with it (almost to a fault) this season, but nobody can argue with the results. This offense is built around Adrian Peterson, the NFL’s leading rusher by 227 yards. If history tells us anything, it’s that Peterson is the type of player that only gets better as a season wears on. This does not bode well for the Packers.

At 961 rushing yards through nine games, Peterson is actually ahead of his 2012 season pace. Yeah, that 2012. The one where he came within nine yards of breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record.

Overall, the Vikings’ offense ranks first in the NFL at 147.9 rushing yards per game. Right guard Mike Harris and right tackle T.J. Clemmings have been rock solid in run blocking this season, as evident in Peterson’s stats. According to ESPN, on runs towards the right side, Peterson has rushed for 374 yards on 51 carries, good for 7.3 yards per carry. Additionally, on runs to the right sideline, Peterson has tallied 111 yards on 18 carries.

Harris and Clemmings have certainly been solid, but the tendency for Turner to stack multiple tight ends on the right side of the formation is also a factor in Peterson’s success running to the right side. Say what you want about Kyle Rudolph’s catching abilities after his inexcusable drop last week, the man can run block, as can Rhett Ellison and MyCole Pruitt.

After ripping apart what was the 8th ranked rushing defense in the NFL in the Oakland Raiders for over 200 yards, Peterson now gets the 24th ranked rush defense in the Packers, who allow 116.2 rushing yards per game. Needless to say, expect a lot of number 28 on Sunday.

More from Adrian Peterson

Through the air, the Vikings haven’t been impressive by any stretch of the imagination. Minnesota’s passing attack ranks 31st in the NFL at just over 181 yards per game, and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in three straight games (all of which were wins, by the way). However, Bridgewater hasn’t been asked to do a whole let this season, especially given the success of the ground game. The offensive line has struggled this season in pass protection at times, but was pretty impressive overall last week.

Green Bay’s pass defense is ranked 21st in the NFL, allowing 255 yards per game through the air. While that’s definitely a favorable matchup, I still expect Turner to use Peterson on the ground as much as possible against the Packers. Peterson has had enormous success against them in his career, and it’s tough to see that changing this week.

When looking at the statistics, it’s hard to not give the edge to the Vikings here. But, hey, I’m a little biased. Probably.

Packers offense vs. Vikings defense

Historically, this aspect of the Vikings-Packers matchup has been extremely lopsided in Green Bay’s favor. However, that’s a little different this year. In fact, the Vikings might actually have the advantage here. Weird, right?

Aaron Rodgers, in my opinion, is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, if not the best (pretty tough to argue against Tom Brady right now). However, as we’ve seen in recent weeks, it’s possible to fluster Rodgers because apparently he is indeed human.

Green Bay’s struggling passing game, which now ranks 22nd in the NFL at 236 yards per game, can be attributed to really their entire unit. The offensive line is blocking about as well as five traffic cones, allowing 19 sacks and 41 knockdowns over the last six games (also keeping in mind Rodgers’ wizard-like escapability). Rodgers’ receivers have had a ton of trouble getting separation from opposing defensive backs, and it appears he’s clearly missing Jordy Nelson a lot. Then, of course, Rodgers himself is also underperforming, completing under 60% of his passes over the last six games. Again, the blame goes all around here.

The Packer passing attack will try to get back on track against a Vikings defense that ranks 8th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 228 per game. Most of you reading this already know about the greatness that is Mike Zimmer’s defense, so I won’t elaborate on it too much. Basically, they cover gusy and they get after the opposing quarterback really well. It’s awesome and it’s scary. Just ask Amari Cooper.

As far as the Packers’ running game, they rank right in the middle of the pack at 16th with 108 yards per game. This number is somewhat inflated due to garbage time runs and such in the first few games of the season, but they’re still respectable. No thanks to Eddie Lacy, though, who’s had himself an extremely disappointing season. Not only has he lost his starting job to James Starks, but he also is, like, really fat now. He’s shaped like a pear.

Minnesota’s rush defense, coincidentally, also ranks 16th in the league allowing 108 yards per game. However, the unit has shown tremendous improvement over the past few weeks, holding Todd Gurley to just 3.7 yards per carry in Week 9 and the Raiders to a total of 84 yards last week. Linval Joseph and Sharrif Floyd make up a dynamic duo of defensive tackles that both wreak havoc constantly in opposing backfields.

With all of this being said regarding the matchup of the Packers offense and the Vikings defense, again, I’m inclined to give the advantage to the Vikings.

Next: Vikings vs. Packers: Keys to Victory

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