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Minnesota Timberwolves: 2015-16 season preview and predictions

By Drew Mahowald

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Wednesday night, the Minnesota Timberwolves will travel to Staples Center to take on the Los Angeles Lakers in their 2015-16 season opener. After a disappointing 16-66 season a year ago, the Timberwolves will try to rebound and make themselves relevant again in the Western Conference.

On Sunday, it was announced that Timberwolves head coach, president of basketball operations and part-owner Flip Saunders had passed away after a battle with Hodgkins Lymphoma. As the players and coaches addressed the media yesterday, it seemed clear that the team would be playing for Flip this season and beyond.

As far as this season’s predictions, I’ve already laid out full predictions in a roundtable article I took part in over at On The Prowl with a few other Wolves bloggers. However, I’ll lay out some key predictions I have for this season in this article as well.

Season Preview

The Minnesota Timberwolves finished the 2014-15 season 16-66, which turned out to be the worst record in the league. In 2015-16, I think it’s very possible for the team to double its win total from last season from 32. However, contending for a playoff spot is too far of a stretch. There’s just too much youth and inexperience on this team to make a run at the playoffs this season.

Last year’s record of 16-66 is a bit misleading, because the roster that Flip Saunders had assembled going into last season is definitely not that bad when everybody is healthy. Unfortunately, injuries just kept coming to this team and Flip then pulled off the best tanking job I’ve ever seen, which resulted in the 16-win season.

Here’s this starting lineup and rotation that Sam Mitchell used in the last preseason game against the Bucks. Whether he sticks with this to begin the regular season is yet to be seen, but it seems likely.

PG – Ricky Rubio

SG – Andrew Wiggins

SF – Tayshaun Prince

PF – Kevin Garnett

C – Karl-Anthony Towns

Bench – Zach LaVine, Kevin Martin, Shabazz Muhammad, Nemanja Bjelica, Gorgui Dieng

With everyone (besides Nikola Pekovic) healthy again to begin this season, the Wolves will be much more competitive than most people expect. Before Rubio went down with an ankle injury in the Wolves’ fifth game last season, the Wolves had a record of 2-2. The two games they lost, which were by a combined five points, were against the Chicago Bulls and Memphis Grizzlies, both teams that won playoff series. Sure, that’s a small sample, but it shows that this Wolves team can be competitive when completely healthy. If the metaphorical injury bug can stay away from the Timberwolves this season, they could approach 30-35 wins.

Defensively is where the Wolves struggled mightily last season, finishing last in the league in many notable defensive statistical categories. The additions of Towns, Prince, and a healthy Garnett and Rubio should improve this defense. Still, though, don’t expect the Wolves to finish anywhere in the top-20 in the NBA defensively. This preseason, it was still pretty ugly on that end of the floor.

The weakest point of the defense appears to be the perimeter defense. Guards are unable to stay in front of guys and have also had serious trouble closing out on the perimeter, and then rotating accordingly when a teammate is beat. If I were to point to a few players that have struggled the most with this, I’d point to LaVine and Martin.

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Offensively, Wiggins should be the primary scorer for this offense. Towards the end of last season, he grew into that role and performed pretty well, averaging over 24 points per game in the month of April. It’s unrealistic to expect that over a full season for Wiggins, but something around 19 points per game seems like a solid estimate. He should claim the title of leading scorer from Martin this season.

I also expect Ricky Rubio to have his best season in the NBA this season (as long as he stays healthy). In his career, Rubio has never played with the amount of talent he’ll play alongside this season. This will elevate his level to a new play, in my opinion, both on the offensive and defensive end. He’s not the type of player that will light up the stat sheet with 40 points, but he’s a legitimate threat for a triple threat every night and that’s valuable.

Off the bench, the trio of LaVine, Martin, and Muhammad shouldn’t have trouble putting points on the board. Between these three players, you have last season’s team leading scorer (Martin), a player who averaged over 21 points per game last April (LaVine), and a player who averaged over 21 points per 36 minutes last season (Muhammad). Additionally, Bjelica has flashed some serious offensive ability this preseason, especially perimeter shooting and court vision.

There’s a rough preview of what to expect from the Wolves at least to begin the season (who knows what happens when/if injuries occur). Let’s take a look at some predictions I have for the upcoming season.

Predictions

Team MVP – Ricky Rubio

Team LVP – Tyus Jones

Breakout Player – Ricky Rubio (Actually changed my mind on this — had Towns in here before)

Best Defensive Player – Karl-Anthony Towns

Best Three-Point Shooter – Nemanja Bjelica

Leading Scorer – Andrew Wiggins

Leading Rebounder – Karl-Anthony Towns

Season Record – 32-50

Conference Standing – 12th

A few things on my predictions:

  • It appears as if I’m in the minority with my high win projection this season, as I haven’t seen any other prediction for the Wolves to win more than 30 games this season.
  • When I picked Jones as my LVP, I factored in what he would do with his opportunity compared to the other players if they got a chance to play big minutes. If Adreian Payne, Damjan Rudez or Andre Miller would get the opportunity to play, I think they’d be more productive than Jones. I still think Jones can be solid player in the NBA, I just don’t think it’ll happen right away, especially with his underwhelming athleticism.
  • Yes, I picked Rubio has my MVP and Breakout Player. He’s in for a big season. Maybe not necessarily in the stat sheet, but he’ll have a huge impact on this team.

Overall, the success this team has this season will vary largely depending on how healthy this team stays, especially regarding certain players. If the Wolves can stay relatively healthy throughout the season, they’ll be much more competitive than people may expect. Flip Saunders has assembled all the talent necessary, now it’s all about putting it together on the court.

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