Minnesota Timberwolves: Andrew Wiggins is fooling us all

Last year, Andrew Wiggins burst into the NBA spotlight by earning Rookie of the Year honors. He performed reasonably well on both sides of the ball, and put together a solid stat line of 16.9 Pts/4.5 Reb/2.1 Ast per game. This year, Wiggins’ scoring average is up to 21.8 points per game, and many people think that he has only scratched the surface of his full scoring potential. Watching a game, it doesn’t take long to recognize the ability Wiggins has to drive to the hoop, and score in traffic.

In case you haven’t been able to turn on your TV during a Wolves game, here’s a quick snapshot of what you’ve been missing.

So, Wiggins was a rookie sensation last year, and the general consensus this year is that Andrew Wiggins has already taken the “big leap” forward toward stardom.

I’m here to tell you that he’s fooling us all.

Why?

I believe that Wiggins’ basic stats have taken a jump this year because of an increased Usage Rate, not because he magically poofed himself into a superstar costume to become a top scorer in the NBA. Development in the NBA takes time because the quality on both offense and defense is fantastic in comparison to the NCAA, and Andrew Wiggins is no exception to that rule.

Last season, Wiggins used 22.6% of the Timberwolves’ offensive possessions while he was on the floor. This is a relatively average number, and ranked 105th in the NBA last season. This season, his Usage Rate has jumped up to 29.2% of the Timberwolves’ offensive possessions, which ranks 17th overall for players that qualify, and places him directly between Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant on the list. He has suddenly been thrust into the role of “star player” for the Timberwolves. Consequently, Wiggins has 5-10 more offensive touches per game to work with, and it’s showing up in his scoring stats.

Per Game Statistics for Andrew Wiggins (First Two Seasons)

Image Courtesy of BasketballReference.com

What surprised me the most when I first saw this table is that Wiggins’ Field Goal Percentage this year for 3PT, 2PT, and Total is nearly identical to last year. I felt like I had been tricked. How could it be? It seems like he’s scoring SO MUCH more! It turns out the difference lies in Field Goals Attempted (FGA) and Field Goals Made (FG). He’s getting 4 more shot attempts per game, and the increased number of shots he’s taking and making is inflating his scoring stats. He’s got an additional 3-4 points simply because of the additional shots he’s taking per game.

So what does this mean?

This means that Wiggins isn’t developing at the unbelievable rate his stats (and A LOT of really excited Wolves fans) would lead you to believe. He’s still an extremely talented scorer. I just think most people are getting caught up in the hype of how many points he’s scoring, without actually looking at whether or not he is ACTUALLY developing.